How is LPG priced internationally?

International LPG cargoes from the Middle East are priced against the Saudi Aramco Contract Price (CP) for Propane and Butane, weighted by composition, plus a spot premium, freight (Baltic BLPG routes), insurance and any war-risk surcharge.

LNG is priced under three dominant mechanisms: oil-indexed using a Brent slope (typically 11–14% × Brent + a constant), Henry Hub-indexed for US-origin FOB cargoes (115% × HH + a fixed liquefaction fee), and spot-indexed against JKM in Asia or TTF in Europe, with shipping added separately when sold DES.

How are crude oil cargoes priced?

Crude cargoes are priced against a regional benchmark (Brent for Atlantic Basin, Dubai/Oman for Middle East sour grades, WTI for US barrels) plus an Official Selling Price (OSP) differential set monthly by the producer, adjusted for quality (API, sulphur) and freight on the relevant Worldscale route.

How are EN590 and Jet A-1 priced?

Refined products are priced against Platts assessments — CIF NWE Cargoes or FOB ARA Barges for Europe, MOPS for Asia — averaged over the agreed Quotation Period, then adjusted for premium, freight on Worldscale clean routes, SGS or Intertek inspection and insurance.

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Knowledge Centre

Field notes from the desk

Primers, glossaries and market notes on crude, refined products, LNG, helium and the credit terms behind them.

Knowledge Centre · Research & Insight

The material world, read closely.

A working reference for the desks we run and the counterparties we serve. Seven live pillars — crude, naphtha, LNG, fertilizers, shipping, refining and regional markets — grounded in primary sources from the IEA, OPEC, the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, KAPSARC, MIT, Stanford, Columbia, Harvard, Imperial and the LSE.

Crude Naphtha LNG Fertilizer Shipping Refining Regional

Upstream · Physical

Crude Oil Outlook

Balances, differentials and the medium-sour bid. What we read across Brent, Dubai and WTI when we price a lift.

OPEC+ production policy remains the single largest driver of Brent–Dubai and Brent–WTI spreads; monthly meeting outcomes reshape the front curve within hours.
Medium-sour grades (Dubai, Murban, Upper Zakum, Arab Medium) attract structural premia into Northeast Asia as complex refiners chase middle-distillate yields.
The IEA, OPEC MOMR and EIA STEO offer three internally consistent balance frameworks — the delta between them is often more informative than any single forecast.
Freight (VLCC AG–East, Suezmax WAF–UKC) and floating storage economics can swing landed economics by $0.60–$1.50 /bbl inside a single week.

Reference metrics

Global demand (2026e): ~104 Mb/d
Non-OPEC supply growth: +1.2 Mb/d
OECD commercial stocks: 5-yr avg ±

Curated reading

Refined Products · Petchem Feedstock

Naphtha Demand & the Petchem Cycle

Where refined-product yield meets petrochemical margin. The naphtha–LPG substitution economics that drive Asian cracker runs.

Naphtha's role bifurcates: gasoline blending in the West vs. steam-cracker feedstock into ethylene / propylene in Asia. The MOPJ–FEI (LPG) spread governs cracker feed selection.
Middle-East heavy-full-range naphtha (HFR) and paraffinic grades feed Korean, Japanese, Taiwanese and Chinese olefins complexes; regional cargoes trade against MOPJ and Platts benchmarks.
Petrochemical margins in China (integrated cracker EBIT/t) are the leading indicator of naphtha demand — negative margins persisting >2 quarters historically trigger cracker turnarounds and pull the East–West spread down.
Aromatics complexes (reformate → paraxylene → PTA → PET) create a parallel demand curve that decouples from olefins during textile cycles.

Reference metrics

Asian cracker capacity: ~110 Mt/y
Naphtha in ethylene feed: ~55%
MOPJ–FEI switch band: ~$60–120/t

Curated reading

Gas · Chartering

LNG Markets & Regasification

TTF, JKM and Henry Hub — three benchmarks, one arbitrage. How Atlantic and Pacific balances re-price on a single cold front.

The JKM–TTF spread, minus round-trip freight and boil-off, defines the intra-basin arbitrage. Panama Canal congestion can add 10–15 days and $0.80/MMBtu to a US Gulf → North Asia lift.
European storage entering winter (target 90% by Nov 1 under EU regulation) is the dominant TTF price setter; South Asian and LatAm spot demand is the marginal JKM setter.
New liquefaction from the US Gulf, Qatar's North Field expansion and Mozambique/Tanzania FIDs will add ~180 Mtpa of capacity through 2030 — a step-change in gas globalisation.
Regas terminal slot rights, FSRU availability and destination clauses (increasingly rare in new SPAs) are the operational levers that convert paper arb into physical PnL.

Reference metrics

Global LNG trade: ~410 Mt/y
New liquefaction 2025–30: +180 Mtpa
EU winter storage target: ≥90%

Curated reading

Nitrogen · Sulphur · Phosphates

Fertilizer & Feedstock Trends

Urea, ammonia, sulphur, phosphate — the four inputs that decide global caloric supply. Gas-price arbitrage across urea corridors.

Urea plants are effectively gas-into-nitrogen converters. When European TTF prices push ammonia production offline, seaborne urea prices rally as Middle-East, Egyptian and North African capacity absorbs demand.
Sulphur is a co-product of sour gas processing and refining. Middle-East supply (Qatar, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Kazakhstan) sets the FOB benchmark; Moroccan phosphate producers are the largest single sink.
Phosphate rock and DAP/MAP are dominated by Morocco (OCP) and China; export policy changes materially move CFR Brazil and CFR India benchmarks.
The food-security lens: FAO and IFPRI research show fertilizer affordability transmits into caloric supply within 6–12 months in low-income food-importing countries.

Reference metrics

Global urea trade: ~55 Mt/y
Sulphur seaborne: ~35 Mt/y
Phosphate rock — Morocco: ~70% reserves

Curated reading

Freight · Chartering

Shipping Developments

Rates, routings and regulation. Suez, Panama, Malacca — the three chokepoints that reprice every basin.

VLCC, Suezmax and Aframax rates on TCE terms are the operational cost curve behind every cargo. The Baltic Exchange indices remain the industry reference.
IMO 2020 (0.5% sulphur cap) permanently altered VLSFO/HSFO spreads; IMO's 2050 net-zero pathway is now reshaping newbuilding orders toward dual-fuel LNG and methanol.
Red Sea / Bab-el-Mandeb rerouting via Cape of Good Hope adds ~10–14 days on Asia–Europe voyages and materially tightens tonne-mile demand.
EU ETS extended to maritime (from 2024) prices carbon into voyage economics; FuelEU Maritime (from 2025) begins compressing WTW GHG intensity.

Reference metrics

VLCC fleet: ~910 ships
Suez transits: ~19,000/y
IMO 2050 target: Net-zero

Curated reading

Downstream · Margins

Refining Margins & Product Balances

Complex GRMs, secondary-unit economics and the diesel–gasoline crack that decides which refinery runs full-tilt.

Gross Refining Margin (GRM) decomposition: crack spreads by product, minus energy costs, minus non-fuel opex, plus/minus secondary-unit yield uplift (FCC, hydrocracker, reformer).
Complex Asian refineries with hydrocracking capacity capture the middle-distillate premium in cold winters; simple hydroskimming margins have structurally deteriorated.
European refining faces capacity closures (Grangemouth, Wesseling) and an accelerated transition to co-processing bio-feedstocks and green hydrogen.
The 'refined-product globalisation' thesis: net-exporter capacity (Middle East, India, China) is displacing traditional Atlantic refining hubs.

Reference metrics

Global refining capacity: ~103 Mb/d
Middle-East net exports: +3.5 Mb/d
Singapore complex GRM: $4–10/bbl

Curated reading

Regional · Policy

Regional Market Updates

GCC, Levant, South Asia, East Africa. Where policy, subsidy and geography meet the physical barrel.

GCC: Vision 2030 (Saudi Arabia), UAE We The UAE 2031, Qatar National Vision 2030 and Kuwait Vision 2035 are structurally reallocating hydrocarbon revenues toward petrochemicals, hydrogen and semiconductors.
Iraq & the Levant: SOMO's term-contract mechanism and Basrah Medium/Heavy differentials remain the region's price anchor; Kurdistan pipeline politics still shape northern Iraqi flows.
South Asia (India, Pakistan, Bangladesh): the largest single incremental demand source for gasoil, jet, LPG and urea. India's public-sector refiners (IOC, BPCL, HPCL) dominate spot Middle-East procurement.
East Africa: LNG (Mozambique Rovuma, Tanzania Songo Songo) and refined-product import terminals are re-drawing the East-of-Suez map; landlocked demand centres depend on Mombasa and Dar es Salaam corridors.

Reference metrics

GCC crude capacity: ~28 Mb/d
India refined imports: Growing
Mozambique LNG (FID): 12.9 Mtpa

Curated reading

Editorial Briefings

Field notes from the desk.

Short, quantitative pieces we write for the desks we run. No promotional content — only the questions we actually asked ourselves that week.

Crude2026-06 · 8 min read

The Brent–Dubai EFS: what a compressing spread is really telling us

As the Brent–Dubai Exchange for Swaps narrows, Asian refiners rebalance term nominations away from sour barrels. We map the last six compressions against Chinese teapot run rates.

Continue reading →

Naphtha2026-06 · 11 min read

Cracker feed selection: reading the MOPJ–FEI switch band

A field guide to the LPG-versus-naphtha decision that Asian olefin producers re-run every morning — and what it means for Middle-East FOB paraffinic naphtha differentials.

Continue reading →

LNG2026-05 · 9 min read

EU storage at 90%: does JKM decouple from TTF this winter?

With European inventory levels comfortably ahead of the regulatory target, we test the historical correlation between JKM and TTF under three demand-shock scenarios.

Continue reading →

Fertilizer2026-05 · 12 min read

Urea as a proxy long on European gas — five case studies

Every winter, seaborne urea trades as a shadow position on TTF. We revisit five European ammonia curtailments and quantify the pass-through to CFR Brazil urea.

Continue reading →

Shipping2026-04 · 7 min read

The Cape re-routing and the tonne-mile bull case

How persistent Red Sea diversions have quietly re-priced VLCC and Suezmax TCE curves, and why forward freight agreements are now the cheapest hedge on the board.

Continue reading →

Refining2026-04 · 10 min read

Asian complex GRMs: why hydrocracking is winning again

Middle-distillate strength is doing what naphtha did five years ago. We decompose Singapore, Reliance and SATORP margin stacks — and identify the units that are printing.

Continue reading →

Regional2026-03 · 9 min read

Basrah differentials and the SOMO cycle

A close read of the last eighteen SOMO monthly OSPs against Dubai, and what the recurring pattern says about Iraqi export policy into 2027.

Continue reading →

Research & Policy Partners

Where the work is done.

The universities, institutes, multilateral bodies and industry groups whose work sits on our desks. We link to primary sources so counterparties can verify the assumptions behind every view.

University

MIT Energy Initiative

Energy systems, transition economics, storage

University

MIT CEEPR

Center for Energy & Environmental Policy Research

Institute

Oxford Institute for Energy Studies

Oil, gas and electricity market analysis

University

Stanford — Precourt Institute for Energy

Energy technology and policy

University

Harvard Kennedy School — Belfer Center

Geopolitics of energy, environment & natural resources

University

Imperial College — Centre for Energy Policy

Energy transition, hydrogen, decarbonisation

University

LSE — Grantham Research Institute

Climate change & the environment

University

Columbia — Center on Global Energy Policy

Geopolitics and clean energy policy

Institute

KAPSARC

MENA energy economics, policy, data

University

Khalifa University — Petroleum Institute programmes

Upstream and process engineering

Institute

Bruegel

European economic and energy policy

Multilateral

IEA

Oil, gas, electricity, efficiency, transitions

Multilateral

IEF

International Energy Forum — producer/consumer dialogue

Multilateral

IRENA

Renewables & energy transition (HQ Abu Dhabi)

Multilateral

OPEC Secretariat

Balances, MOMR, World Oil Outlook

Multilateral

OECD / NEA

Economic and nuclear energy policy

Multilateral

GECF

Gas Exporting Countries Forum

Industry Body

GIIGNL

LNG importers

Industry Body

International Gas Union (IGU)

Global gas industry

Industry Body

IFA

International Fertilizer Association

Industry Body

Energy Institute

Statistical Review of World Energy

Regulator

IMO

Maritime environmental regulation

Industry Body

IEEE / IEC

Grid, storage and interconnection standards

How we read the market

Method, not opinion.

Every piece we publish is anchored to primary data. We favour multi-source triangulation — the IEA balance, the OPEC MOMR and the EIA STEO read together — and we surface disagreement rather than smooth it.

Primary sources first

IEA, OPEC, EIA, GIIGNL, IFA, Baltic Exchange, IMO, Energy Institute — cited inline, never paraphrased without attribution.

Academic peer review

Working papers from OIES, KAPSARC, MIT CEEPR, Columbia CGEP, Belfer Center and Bruegel are our secondary layer.

Trade data verification

Cross-checked against SGS / Intertek inspection certificates on our own cargoes and against public port authority disclosures.

Editorial independence

Views expressed do not represent trading positions. Where we hold exposure, it is disclosed explicitly at the top of the piece.

The MENA United Weekly

One briefing. Monday, 07:00 GST.

A single, tightly edited email covering the crude curve, refined cracks, LNG spreads, freight indices and one long-form piece from the archive above. Reserved for counterparties and industry professionals.

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